Still a long way to go

If we roughly follow the 4 year cycle of Bitcoin we observe a trend that goes like this :

3 years of accumulation from the top of a market followed by 1 year of hype and parabolic rise to the next top .

Or more specifically 1 year heavy correction to the bottom , 2 years slow grind back up with a test to new lows , and 1 year new parabolic rise again.

According to this scenario the first phase ( 3 years ) we see a slow rise to all time high before we break it up and reach new highs in the following year .

This pattern has been observed with moderate accuracy for the last 3 cycles approximately. This observation is also tied with the halving of Bitcoin and creates a long term trend of bear and bull cycles .

If we take Into account this simple analysis we can project into the future a rough estimate of the next bull run as a fun exercise.

With a November 2021 top , that would put us into year #2 of the 4 year cycles .

The cycle would look like this :

• November 2021 cycle top
• 2022 to 2024 1st phase of recovery to ath
• 2025 new cycle top (the year where Bitcoin breaks ath and beyond )

In 2025 we will likely see more clarity on regulations and a possible recovery of inflation back to acceptable levels for the feds to reverse course in interest rates in the best possible outcome for bullish growth.

Of course the past doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes . Thanks for reading my Ted talk .

Tdlr: According to the 4 year cycle , we are now in mid 2023 which puts us about 1,5 year into phase 1 ( 1,5 years more to go! ) before we break ath again .

Better spend some time enjoying the summer with friends and family because there’s still plenty of time before the next bull run .