Analyzing five common bottom indicators. They all failed to identify the November 2022 low, but did an adequate job showing a good moment to buy earlier in 2022!

We are almost half a year off of the November 2022 low of Bitcoin. A good moment to reflect. How did the most common bottom indicators that people use perform?

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(1) Rainbow Price Chart

We all know the Rainbow Price Chart. It uses a simple logarithmic growth curve to forecast the potential future price direction of Bitcoin. It successfully identified best moments to buy in many years since 2014. The 2022 bear market broke the chart as the price dropped below the bottom band, so the creator published a new version.

RIP Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart Version 1

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(2) RSI on the weekly timeframe

The relative strength index (RSI) reflects the strength in the market at a moment in time. Every previous bear market the bottom was made when RSI dropped below the purple band (highlighted with red circle) and hit oversold. That happened in the summer of 2022. Then a bigger fall happened November 2022 when the RSI already had left the oversold region (highlighted with red arrow).

https://preview.redd.it/qq8jjv61vvwa1.png?1386&format=png&auto=webp&s=bdc849e6bacd8df7fe6f5067c226096bc027186d

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(3) MACD on the monthly timeframe

The MACD is a trend-following indicator that helps determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold. In the past, when the trend shifted and the histogram transitioned from dark red to light red, the bear market bottom was in. These moments are highlighted with a purple vertical dashed line. This time, the trend shifted and we got another low in November 2022, highlighted by a red arrow.

https://preview.redd.it/may3o8cuvvwa1.png?1383&format=png&auto=webp&s=27f6e72dcce83238bcf69dd25ccea63506276bfd

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(4) 200 week moving average

The most famous moving average is the 200 week moving average. It never truly got broken before, even if we dipped our toes below it during the COVID fall. Last year, however, we closed below it and rejected off of it. We only reclaimed the moving average March 2023.

https://preview.redd.it/t8bu5saewvwa1.png?1385&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fcb1279b084adf01649fed19f7e5f7c2913a5d1

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(5) Pi Cycle indicator

The Pi Cycle indicator uses moving averages and has an insane track record of identifying when the top is and when the bottom is. It indicated that the bottom was in over the summer 2022, before the final capitulation November 2022.

Source: CryptoJelle

To conclude, a few key take aways:

• These five bottom indicators failed to identify Bitcoin's November 2022 bottom. The people who commented that this time is different, were right! They all signaled too early.
• Nevertheless, they did an adequate job identifying a great opportunity for buying. If you waited and bought when these flashed, you'd be up by a lot right now.
• If you bought alts when these indicators flashed, with many coins you'd have done better than buying in November 2022. Coins like Ethereum and XRP made their low earlier than Bitcoin.
• The only perfect bottom indicator was buying when the Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart died. That happened on November 21, 2022, the day that Bitcoin bottomed.